The Best Opportunities Come In Times Of Maximum Pessimism

downloadThe first half of the 21st Century is a Fourth/First Turning period (See the Fourth Turning by Howe and Strauss).*

This means that the olds ways of doing just about everything are quickly evaporating and being replaced by new ways.

The faster we learn the new ways (or even creating some ourselves) the better for our own personal economy.

One of my mentors from 20 years ago took a class at Stanford in the 1950’s called “Contrary Opinion.”

The point of the class was to show that most people are wrong most of the time. So don’t follow the crowd.

By doing the opposite of what most of the people are doing—especially in the beginning of a period of change— you have a greater chance at success.

Fourth-Turning-Image-300x210Warren Buffett says it a little differently, he says “be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful,” and Sir John Templeton said, “the best opportunities come in times of maximum pessimism.”

This suggests that we should strive to see what is happening around us from a perspective of curiosity and creativity rather than fear and trepidation.

We should operate and make decisions from a pro-active stance rather an reactive one.

This is how fortunes are made, new technologies created, and the world changed for good.

Unfortunately, most Americans are and will continue to persevere in the old ways which serve only to alienate them from the new reality, making them less and less effective.

Dent-Jr.-195x300Take for instance the January 2015 report just put out by forecaster and demographer, Harry Dent.

Gauge Your Real Estate Risks: How to Prepare for the Next Crash                January 2015 — Harry Dent, Editor

This is a MUST read.

I have been following Harry Dent for about 10 years.

He offers insight into where our economy is going based primarily on demographics.

Many people will read this report and be scared out of their skins because they will compare it to where we have been, and the economic tragedies of 2001 and 2008; the housing bubble, the near stock market crash, unemployment etc.

But many people have made fortunes over the past 13 years, just like others did during the Great Depression. The real question we should be asking ourselves is how did they do it?**

I struggle with using Facebook and emailing from my I-phone of which I currently am using about 1% of it’s capacity. I still do not understand the value of Twitter, and the host of other social media platforms….but I acknowledge that to effectively communication—at least to get people’s attention—I must master these tools of the 21st century if I plan to be a success over the next few decades.

The same is true about developing financial freedom and in turn maintaining political freedom. The principles remain the same, but the way that we communicate them and apply them are changing, and we must change with them.

 

* Other suggested books to read:

The Coming Aristocracy, DeMille

Money: Master the Game – & Simple Steps To Financial Freedom, Robbins

Thomas Jefferson Education for Teens, DeMille & Brooks

  

**I sent the Dent Report to Strongbrook founder Kris Krohn and President and CEO, Steve Earl.  Below is Steve’s response.

From: Steve Earl <Steve.Earl@strongbrook.com>

Subject: Re: Dent’s Latest Looks Like a Boon for Us

Date:   December 29, 2014 4:48:39 PM MST

To: Shanon Brooks <sb@monticellocollege.org>

Shanon,

Mr. Dent makes some very good points and seems to have some good data to back up his theories.  I agree with most and a little less on others.

Nonetheless, I do believe his thoughts are very accurate in that what he believes the market will do over the coming years gives legitimacy to Strongbrook’s real estate investing strategy, which is two fold.

Number one, we are built on the strategy of creating cash flow through real estate, and because the constant found in real estate is the consistency of rent values, the market can go up or it can go down and the cash flow remains fairly steady.

Number two, when a growth market presents itself, we are able to take advantage of the opportunity, and then move out of it at a strong yet conservative point in the growth cycle.  Additionally, Mr. Dent notes that real estate is very geographic in nature.  Strongbrook has developed its acquisition team to be constantly looking for particular opportunities through out the country and then bring those to its clients.

I agree with Mr. Dent’s thoughts on population growth and how that will affect demand for real estate.  What I don’t know is how accurately things will play out based on his theory.  One thing he doesn’t account for in his hypothesis is the affect immigration may have on US population and demographics.

With the recent change President Obama made to immigration law and how that whole thing may evolve, the US could see a significant increase in population from immigration.  Most of these people are renters, and that will create more demand in the rental market.  Additionally, if these immigrants are granted valid SS#’s, the opportunity for them to get loans and buy homes will impact the single family market and the value of homes.

Having said all of that, if Mr. Dent is 100% right on all accounts, Strongbrook is definitely positioned to help its clients succeed in a very big way over the coming decade.

I hope you all had a great Christmas!  I am looking forward to a huge 2015 and seeing Strongbrook have a significant impact in each of our lives.

 

Sincerely,

Steve Earl

President & CEO

The Strongbrook Group

 

Krislyn Elliott & Lauren Swanepoel

Krislyn Elliott and Lauren Swanepoel act more like sisters than moms as they take really slow walks through the woods together, looking at and taking pictures of every plant they see & wishing they could remember their names and uses more thoroughly. They also like concocting herbal teas, salves, tinctures and strange drinks.

Krislyn is from Utah and has loved learning about plants since an unusually cool high school biology teacher took his classes on neighborhood botany walks. She has always been fascinated and constantly amazed at the power and beauty of plants.

Lauren is from South Africa, she and her family emigrated to Utah almost 10 years ago. They have fallen in love with the area and know more about this state & the great places to explore here than most Utah natives.

We both feel strongly about taking care of our families with natural methods and the abundant medicine we have growing right around us. We are trying to learn as much as we can about our magical local plants and are looking forward to sharing some of our favorites with you.

William DeMille

Director of Georgic Develeopment

William DeMille is a lifelong vegetable farmer. He studied Horticulture and Agronomy at Northwest Missouri University, Maryville. He holds a certificate in aquaponic engineering and production from Cornell University, NY, and another from GrowHaus Aquaponics in Denver, CO. He also studied soil regeneration and is a graduate of Dr. Elaine’s Soil Food Web School. He is the Director of Georgic Development for The Center for American Legacy Studies.

William is a farm consultant establishing several agricultural startups since 2005 in Missouri, Oregon, Colorado, Utah, and Nevada and he currently manages 2500 acres of grassland for the Ruby Mountain Foods Company.

His latest venture is a market gardening school called Georgic Revolution where he teaches a 17-week course onsite in Nevada covering soil health and vegetable production without the use of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, etc. and where he operated a soil lab.

William lives with his wife Vernie in the snow capped mountains of Northern Nevada.

Lloyd Nelson

World Renown BD Expert

Lloyd Nelson has been practicing the art of Biodynamic (BD) Agriculture for over twenty years. He is a BD preparation maker, builder, artist, farmer, arborist, BD educator & consultant. He is co-founder of Biodynamic Source – a Colorado based non-profit specializing in high potency BD preparations – and he owns and operates a Biodynamic spray, fertilizer and consultation service. He has worked with small and large scale farms, vineyards, and orchards to transition to sustainable Biodynamic land management and Demeter BD Certification.

Vern Cox, PhD

Educator

Vern Cox is married to Joyce Christensen and they have 8 children. He has 3 earned degrees, a BA in psychology, and both a Master’s degree and a Ph.D. in marriage and family therapy.

He has had a diverse and interesting career that started with the Bureau of Land Management, followed by a stint as a Learning Disabilities teacher, and finally a marriage and family therapist, working his way up to executive director of the High Country Counseling and Resource Centers that served two counties in Wyoming.

Dr. Cox served for several years on the board of a charter school. Dr. Cox remains heavily involved in his community and the home schooling movement.

He has extensive background in marriage and family counseling, having held a number of administrative positions during his first career. He holds a BA in Psychology and both a Masters and PhD in Marriage and Family Therapy. He lives with his wife and several married children on their multi-generation farm in Southern Utah.

Joseph Lofthouse

Educator

Joseph adopted the principles of landrace gardening in response to the harsh growing conditions in a high-altitude, short-season, desert garden. Instead of relying on expensive poisons, labor, and materials to coddle the plants, he encourages genetic diversity, cross-pollination, and survival of the fittest, allowing the plants to adapt themselves to the current and ever-changing ecosystem, thus simplifying gardening and seed saving. Joseph is the author of Landrace Gardening: Food Security Through Biodiversity and Promiscuous Pollination. Joseph loves eating, farming, swimming, hot-springs, sunbathing, bird-watching, running, yoga, leggings, kilts, playing guitar, singing, and living habitually barefoot.

Dan Brooks

Educator

Dan Brooks was born and raised in the Pacific Northwest. During his first career, he spent 20 years working in and managing high-end restaurants and golf courses including extensive banquet/special events services and ice sculptures.

For the past 23 years, Dan has been a successful entrepreneur and family business owner in Las Vegas. He and his wife have 4 children and 11 grandchildren. He serves as a trustee for The Center for American Legacy Studies.

Shanon Brooks, PhD

Director

Shanon Brooks is the director of The Center for American Legacy Studies, an institution dedicated to helping families embrace and incorporate the Five American Ideals; Georgics, Liber, Providence, Public Virtue, and Liberty into their lives and communities. America exists because of Americans. Americans are the beneficiaries of a peculiar culture and way of living.

Over the past 75 years, that culture and way of life have been lost. Restore that culture and Americans will rebuild America to once again be worthy of John Winthrop’s 1630 admonition, “For we must consider that we shall be as a city upon a hill. The eyes of all people are upon us.”

Brooks has been a leader in alternative higher education for over 30 years, and is the author of two books: AMERICAN: Killing the American Dream and A Thomas Jefferson Education for Teens.

Dr. Brooks is a veteran of military service in the United States Submarine Fleet and holds a Bachelor’s degree in business administration, a Master’s degree in education, and a Ph.D. in constitutional law.

He and his wife Julia reside on the 80-acre conference facility of The Center for American Legacy Studies.